Filip (PROJECT10X) has been on eToro since January 2021 and has achieved a 40% annualised return. That’s better than all the major indexes.
On eToro
✅ We’re here to grow our portfolio long-term
✅ We use macro themes to make asymmetrical risk-reward trades.
✅ We work hard on making world-class investments so that you don’t have to.
eToro AUS Capital Limited ACN 612 791 803 AFSL 491139. Social trading. eToro does not approve or endorse any of the trading accounts customers may choose to copy or follow. Assets held in your name. Capital at risk. See PDS and TMD.
Long-Term
➡️ We invest in “exponential growth” or EG assets that revolutionize the way we live, interact and play (think digital assets, space travel, artificial intelligence).
➡️ We allocate ~90% of the portfolio to EG as we believe it will outperform over the next 5 to 10 years – we’re young, and we’ve got the time for the market to see what we saw years ago.
Short-Term
➡️ We use technical analysis to trade levels and swing failure patterns to profit from short-term price movements.
➡️ Opportunities might come around once a week or once a month. Either way, we take advantage when the time is right, and we are always strict with risk management.
eToro AUS Capital Limited ACN 612 791 803 AFSL 491139. Social trading. eToro does not approve or endorse any of the trading accounts customers may choose to copy or follow. Assets held in your name. Capital at risk. See PDS and TMD.
👉 We’ve got a small team that helps with market research, writing code, and summarizing content – they are our biggest edge!
👉 We use tools such as TradingView and TradingLite to get more granular level data.
👉 We backtest our trading strategies using Python and its many libraries – quant style, baby!
👉 We have subscriptions with Seeking Alpha, Simply Wall Street, Real Vision, Messari and more – because there’s value in hearing the opinions of smart people.
👉 We actively use the technologies we invest in. If we don’t see the use case, why are we investing?
👉 We listen to podcasts to understand what the thought leaders and visionaries in their respective fields are thinking.
eToro AUS Capital Limited ACN 612 791 803 AFSL 491139. Social trading. eToro does not approve or endorse any of the trading accounts customers may choose to copy or follow. Assets held in your name. Capital at risk. See PDS and TMD.
Are we the right popular investor for you?
1️⃣ Are you investing more than you are willing to lose?
2️⃣ Are you scared of having “red” days or weeks?
3️⃣ Do you believe that “value stocks” or “bonds” must have a place in any portfolio?
4️⃣ Do you believe that the technological boom we are experiencing is a fad?
5️⃣ Do you liken the crypto or AI “craze” to the tulip mania of 1634 to 1637?
If you answered 𝗬𝗘𝗦 to any of the above, then PROJECT10X is probably not the right Popular Investor for you.
eToro AUS Capital Limited ACN 612 791 803 AFSL 491139. Social trading. eToro does not approve or endorse any of the trading accounts customers may choose to copy or follow. Assets held in your name. Capital at risk. See PDS and TMD.
As Austin Federa recently said,
“It’s been an uphill climb in hurricane-force winds, but the initial thesis of the Solana community is becoming easier to see every day.”
Austin Federa – Head of Strategy at Solana Foundation
I agree. IMO, the opportunity is akin to buying AAPL in 2013. A whopping 1194% return in 10 years. Remember, the iPhone came out in 2007. You didn’t even need to be early. You could have been 6 years late to the party and still had an annualised return of ~29% p/a.
For transparency, ~45% of my crypto portfolio is now in Solana, and if you follow me on Twitter you’ll know that the majority of my digital assets were purchased in the days after the FTX scandal broke (more on that later). In fact, I posted a somewhat cryptic tweet in the middle of the night on 9 November 2022 (yes, I stayed up all night, I was THAT excited).
I then followed that tweet up with this one, announcing that I was almost completely allocated by 14 November 2022.
Based on what happened to the SOL token over the next 12 months, that was a decent move.. for once 🥲
Back to the Solana Bull thesis… we’re all aware that the bear market has not been kind to Solana. It left its mark on almost every project, but it was especially brutal to Solana, having contended with:
Despite these challenges, the Solana community kept building. Now, to put this opportunity into perspective, I focus on three key areas.
It seems logical to address the concerns and FUD around Solana and the SOL token, so I’ll start with the FTX collapse and the onslaught surrounding FTX selling their SOL holdings.
The fall of FTX was accompanied by a major retail-led SOL sell-off. Since then, there’s been a ~185% rise in the price of the token. It’s been one of the best major altcoin performers YTD.
The more recent FUD around FTX selling their tokens is a little comical. Below are some of the many examples coming out on Crypto Twitter (CT) that were getting people’s knickers in a knot on September and October 2023. Do you notice what the price did in that period? It went up and to the right. Why? Because 90% of people on CT do not DYOR.
A recent court ruling around FTX token sell-offs safeguards against a flood of market sales of SOL since liquidations will be subject to volume limits.
Addressing the collapse in TVL. Here are 6 important points to consider when assessing the TVL on SOL compared to other notable L1 and L2 projects.
I believe that Solana will be around for a long while, and on that basis I think it’s also fair to assume that the deltas will continue to reduce over time. In fact, I’m actually of the opinion that the TVL on the Solana network will surpass Arbitrum, Polygon and other L2’s given the following:
One example of #onlypossibleonsolana is using the network for minting compressed NFTs. It is ~3000 times cheaper than Polygon, its direct competitor and projects like Crossmint are already popping up, using state compression to create B2C integrations for deeper customer loyalty. Think of the ASICS loyalty program built out on Solana Pay.
Solana is always offline. Yes, Solana has had outages before and boy did the community hear about it. Was it warranted? Well, with those outages, the network had an uptime >99%. Since the QUIC update and in the last 7 months, Solana has had 100% uptime.
Solana is not decentralised. The Nakamoto coefficient says otherwise, and it is generally accepted as the best way to determine if a blockchain is truly decentralised. The number indicates how difficult it would be to attack the chain. A higher number ultimately means a more decentralized network.
From the figure below it is clear that in terms of the number of nodes, Solana is well ahead of many chains, and it is the leader in terms of the Nakamoto Coefficient.
Solana is/was down 97% from ATH and there’s no way back. If we were talking about a stock, I’d say this statement is pretty much bang on the money. But this is 8th largest digital asset by market cap in the crypto space. Remember when the 2nd largest digital asset i.e. Ethereum, dumped 94% in the 2018 bear market? We all know what happened next.
Headwinds
There are two primary headwinds I consider when it comes to the SOL token – That is the SEC ruling on whether it is a security and the ongoing SOL token unlocks from Alameda.
In June 2023, the SEC named 68 cryptocurrencies as potential securities including Solana (SOL) and Ripple (XRP) among others. In July 2023, a judge ruled that Ripple (XRP) is not a security. While this is a promising start, the case is certainly not over, and we know there won’t be a blanket rule for all digital assets, so there is still some way to go before the SOL token gets the “all clear”. We should keep in mind that this ruling is only applicable in the US, but the US is a major player in the space and sentiment is everything – negative sentiment does not bode well for the SOL price.
The FTX SOL unlock schedule which was so eloquently illustrated by Thanefield Capital shows that these tokens will slowly make their way to the market via linear vesting until 2028, with a large cliff unlock in March 2025. The key may be to sell before FTX does!
I don’t know if there’s anyone out there that believes that digital asset prices are driven by anything other than pumpamentals. If you are out there, then I have one acronym for you. LOL.
Anyways, some might call it narrative, others may call it “bullish catalysts”. Whatever you call it, here is a list of things that may inevitably push the price of SOL up and to the right of the chart!
The bottom line is that the narrative happens way before the price ever reacts, and if you’ve spent any time on crypto twitter, you’re seeing the narrative shift from “its going to zero” to “if you’re not holding SOL, you’re NGMI”.
I suspect we’ll continue to see more commerce on SOL purely due to the unique business offerings only possible on Solana. This is a testament to the hard work the Solana community has been putting in throughout the bear market.
Side note: Solana is building out multilingual teams across 50+ nations to support the network. If that’s not betting on yourself, I don’t know what is. I experienced this firsthand in Georgia, where I saw the Solana community rolling out training camps for young talent wanting to learn to code in Rust. That’s also probably one of the reasons the total number of developers on Solana is growing larger than any other sizeable project in percentage terms.
We’ll take a look at some altcoins that have been through a complete crypto cycle to determine how SOL could behave in the next bull run. I personally like to use Fibonacci extensions to establish possible price targets, and I, of course use other confluence factors, but that’s a topic for another day.
EOS (EOS)
In the 2021 cycle, from a price perspective, EOS (shitcoin IMO) hit a 2-touch resistance with additional confluence of the golden pocket @ 0.618 fib level from the long-term down swing (2018 peak to 2020 trough). At the time of writing, EOS sits at #60 in terms of MC with $636M and little relevancy.
SOL has a similar 2-touch level with additional confluence of the 0.786 Fib level from the long-term downswing at ~$205. Add the fact that markets LOVE nice round numbers, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if SOL tops out at $200 in the next bull run. This is one of the most important resistance levels for SOL, and I expect to take much of my profit at this level.
TRON (TRX)
In terms of price, TRX topped out at just below the 0.618 fib golden pocket level from the long-term downswing (2017 peak to 2020 trough).
If we also look at the Fib extension from the 2017 to 2018 upswing for additional confluence, we see some nice points that served as resistance levels in the last bull run.
If we do the same for SOL we also see that the ~$200 price level I mentioned earlier (2-touch level & 0.786 Fib from long term down swing) also has a 0.236 Fib from long term upswing, which adds additional confluence.
We also see another price point at $130 to $140 with multiple confluence factors, namely the 3-touch level & 0.5 fib from long term downswing & 0.5 Fib from long term upswing. This is another important resistance level and I expect to take some profits here.
TEZOS (XTZ)
Another shitcoin IMO, XTZ hit the golden pocket (0.702 fib) in March and just below the 0.786 fib in November, during the 2021 double top. It is worth noting that the token decreased 97% in value in the 2018 bear market, only to come back to ~75% of its all-time highs (ATH).
SOL was 97% off its ATH at one point following the FTX collapse, and 75% off the ATH is $195 USD. This lends itself to the argument that if a coin like XTZ which is currently sitting at #59 in terms of market cap with $640M can do 75% of it’s ATH with no meaningful adoption, then SOL hitting 75% of its ATH at $200 doesn’t seem so far fetched after all.
Ripple (XRP)
In terms of market cap, XRP topped out inside the golden pocket at the 0.702 fib level from the long-term downswing.
In terms of price, it hit just before the 0.618 Fib level.
It is worth noting that Ripple and Solana have a similar number of followers on Twitter (2.6M vs 2.2M), they’re at similar market cap rankings (#5 vs #8), and they both have a strong and vocal community behind them.
Cardano (ADA)
In terms of market cap, ADA hit the 2.618 Fib level from the long-term downswing at just over $100B. Like I said, markets like nice round numbers.
It did something similar from a price perspective topping out at just below the 2.618 Fib level from the long-term downtrend.
It is worth noting that Cardano and Solana have similar market caps ($9B vs $9.6B), and they both topped out at ~$80B in the last bull run. Solana has more followers on Twitter. If SOL were to hit the 1.618 or 2.618 Fib levels, the token would be priced at $415 and $668 respectively. While I don’t think we’ll see those levels for SOL in this next bull run, the maximum I would even consider risking at these levels is less than 5% of my SOL holdings.
DOGE
It’s just interesting to me that a memecoin hit almost $100B. Also another reminder that markets love round numbers! It is now sitting at #10 in terms of market cap at $8.6B.
So what did we learn?
If you enjoyed reading this and want to hear more as I explore personal finance and investment strategies on my journey to financial freedom, consider hitting sub!
Until next time, keep investing, keep learning, keep winning! 📈💪
-By Filip Brnadic
In 2017, my friends who made millions in crypto quit their jobs, partied like kings, and bought flashy cars – but by year-end, they were begging for jobs! 🎉💔 It’s a recurring pattern, especially in Crypto.
You make a fortune, but do you know how to protect it? Here are six traps I’ve learned (sometimes the hard way) to avoid 💡
𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗽 #𝟭: 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗲 🎯🧠 Success in one area doesn’t guarantee it elsewhere. Stick to your strengths and avoid money sinks. I’m a technologist. I know technology. Look at my portfolio. It’s riddled with tech and tech proxies. Do I look like a gold expert?! Hell nah! Do I invest in gold? Hell nah!
𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗽 #𝟮: 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗶𝘁𝘀 🎲🏦 Parkinson’s Law – money will find ways to vanish. Grow your edge by having a 3-6 month emergency fund, cold storage of long term crypto investments, and have an entry and exit strategy for ALL investments.
𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗽 #𝟯: 𝗙𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗔𝗱𝗮𝗽𝘁 🔄📈 Success is never static. What worked yesterday might not work tomorrow. Think YouTube channels – once easy to grow, now demand high-quality content. Stay ahead by leveling up your strategies. Have you heard of liquidity cycles? How about Fibonacci extensions? Neither did I, but I wanted to grow my wealth, so I learned to use the tools that the pros use to understand markets better.
𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗽 #𝟰: 𝗕𝘂𝗿𝗻𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗔𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘁! 🚨🔥 Work hard but smart. Implement systems, hire help, and schedule retreats to recharge. I often work 12-hour days. But I also often book trips like our Great Barrier Reef trip in June to get away from the screen!
𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗽 #𝟱: 𝗜𝗴𝗻𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲𝘀 💸📊 Know your numbers! Budget, forecast cash flow, and track expenses. Don’t be caught off guard by taxes. 💼💡 Learn from free resources like YouTube. Pro Tip: watch ALL OF Ramit Sethi’s “I will teach you to be rich” podcast series on YouTube and follow his advice. I promise you won’t regret it.
𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗽 #𝟲: 𝗙𝗹𝗮𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗹𝗶𝗳𝗲𝘀𝘁𝘆𝗹𝗲 💃💰 Buy flashy things to fill insecurities? 🛍️🤔 Rather, prioritize spending on what matters and upgrade gradually. Focus on financial security and not impressing others.
𝗧𝗟𝗗𝗥: 💭💪
1. Nothing lasts forever. Keep evolving!
2. Know Your Numbers. Monthly check-ins are vital.
3. Build and Love Yourself. Confidence beats clout.
4. Know How Much is Enough. Protect your fortune.
You’ve got this! 🚀💪 Keep growing, stay grounded, and have a long-term view! 🏆💰
That’s all for now ✌️
-By Filip Brnadic
🥇 Kraken! 🏆It was a very close race, but Kraken beat out CoinSpot purely due to their lower fees when executing market orders (when you buy BTC at the market price). Kraken charges 0.26%, while CoinSpot charges 1%.
There’s a BUT!
CoinSpot actually has lower taker fees (when you want to buy BTC at a certain price, for example). CoinSpot came in at 0.1% compared to 0.16% at Kraken. But, because it’s not a HUGE difference and most people buy at market price, Kraken pips CoinSpot for top spot.
In terms of useability, they both
✅ accept OSKO and bank transfer deposits
✅ free to withdraw from
✅ reputable
✅ accept individual, business, SMSF and other trust clients.
In saying that, exchanges are ONLY EVER used for one of two reasons:
A few months ago, my good friend Ryan recommended a tv show on Netflix. “You’d love it” he said…
Well, that TV show is called “How To Get Rich” by New York Times best-seller Ramit Sethi.
Since Ryan and I last spoke, I’ve watched the show. I’ve also read his book, and watched all 111 of his podcasts, including the one that came out on Tuesday! It’s pretty clear that
What really resonates with me is his mantra. “Spend lavishly on the things you love and cut mercilessly on the things that don’t matter to you”. This alone helped me get over the guilt I felt whenever I spent money on something I loved doing.
Anyways, enough about Ramit. I’ll do a write-up and send it out next week. It’ll be “The definitive guide to getting your family/friends interested in Personal Finance”.
You can send it to that one family member who’s so financially illiterate they think interest rates are the number of likes on a social media post. You know exactly which family member I’m talking about, don’t you?
What are the big boys in the macroeconomics space saying, and what does this mean for markets? Let’s see.
Jim Bianco (Bianco Research LLC):
Well, judging by the last 3 crises shown below, Jim is right that it was the worst time to hold risk-on assets. But does it not also look like markets have pre-empted a 2023/24 rate cut and dumped ahead of schedule, unlike the other times? Hmm, hard to say. We’ll see.
Darius Dale (42 Macro):
Well, I’ve been harping on about the liquidity and risk-on assets for months now, so I tend to agree with Darius. Here’s the perfect illustration. As net global liquidity increases, so does the price of BTC. As liquidity is withdrawn guess what happens to the price of BTC?
Yep – you guessed it!
Raoul Pal (Global Macro Investor):
Raoul has pretty much the same view as Darius which is assets overall will do great in the next 3 years and risk on assets will be the fastest horse. They disagree with when the US recession occurs, but these are semantics.
Overall, they all agree that holding assets is a must – so anyone holding property, stocks, or digital assets is doing right by them!
We say hello to 7 new CopyTraders on eToro in the last 30 days 🙋 ♂️
We’ve had a good run this last month, gaining 5.2%.
So naturally, our CopyTraders have also benefited! Welcome to the fam, and we hope you’re here for the long run! 🙏
2023 performance:
📈 +57% on Enzyme
👉 Not taking new customers.
📈 +48% on eToro
👉 sign up and show us some love 💙💙 by CopyTrading us here
That’s all for now. If you have any questions, you know where to reach me.✌️
-By Filip Brnadic
𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗼 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝗮 𝗠𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗶𝗿𝗲? Start as a billionaire and open a trendy, overpriced juice bar! Just kidding!
Here are four simple steps that will turn almost anyone into a millionaire!
Binge-watch the “How to Get Rich” docuseries by Ramit Sethi on Netflix. It’s like getting insider knowledge on leveling up your money game. You’ll realize you’re not alone in your financial journey, and Ramit’s relatable approach will have you feeling motivated and ready to take charge.
💡𝗣𝗿𝗼 𝗧𝗶𝗽: Ramit Sethi has an awesome YouTube podcast called “I Will Teach You To Be Rich.” It’s like having a personal finance guru in your pocket, dishing out practical tips and tricks. Subscribe and thank me later!
You know what’s cooler than a suit-wearing financial guru? Watching a video where Tom Bilyeu and Jaspreet Singh drop truth bombs about money. Jaspreet’s fresh perspective on wealth will make you rethink everything you thought you knew about building a fortune. It’s like a workout for your financial muscles, but without the gym membership.
Link to video: youtu.be/8CFLg7KN0zI
Imagine this: You’re 25 and investing just $500 per month. Fast forward to your 60th birthday, and you’re a certified millionaire! Sounds like a dream, right? But it’s not! Use a simple compound interest calculator and plug in an 8% interest rate (the historical return of the S&P 500). Witness firsthand how your money can grow like wildfire. 🔥
Link to compound interest calculator: moneysmart.gov.au/budgeting/compound-interest-calculator
Sure, we all want to turn $1 into $1,000,000 overnight. But let’s get real and focus on building sustainable wealth that’ll have you partying like a rockstar in your golden years.👴
Introducing the Conscious Spending Plan by Ramit Sethi. It’s all about spending on what truly sparks joy while mercilessly cutting costs on the things that don’t. Save and invest like a boss while still living your best life. It’s not rocket science; it’s savvy financial decision-making.
Link to Conscious Spending Plan: www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/c-conscious-spending-plan
Now, let’s talk investment game plans. Here are two simple strategies that’ll make you feel like a money maestro:
𝗢𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝟭: Invest in low-cost, no-fuss S&P 500 index funds like $SPY and $VOO every single month. It’s like having your money on autopilot while you focus on conquering the world. With an average historical return of around 8% per year, this strategy rocks.
𝗢𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝟮: Feeling a little extra? Go for low-cost NASDAQ indexes like $CNDX or $QQQ every single month. These babies have been known to deliver an average return of over 10% per year. Prepare to make it rain!
What do you guys think? Is it a fair long-term strategy?
-By Filip Brnadic
First off, we like to separate the signal from the noise, and that means not paying too much attention to
➡️ 𝗨𝗦 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁 𝗰𝗲𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 – it’s been raised more than 75 times and will continue to be raised because the US will not default on its debt. BORING.
➡️ 𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗦 – the bottom line according to the SEC is that they are in no rush to get clear regulation in place. Everything else is just clickbait.
➡️ 𝗕𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗱𝗲-𝗯𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗨 – So what? We’ve still got CoinSpot, Independent Reserve, Swyftx, Kraken Digital Asset Exchange, BTC Markets, and more.
Besides, we’re bench testing all crypto exchanges this month and giving you our top pick in next month’s newsletter.
For the Aussies out there, you’re probably aware that inflation is up to 6.8% from 6.3% last month. Irrespective of why that is, it means that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is not doing enough to bring inflation down. In fact, it probably also means that the RBA will increase the official cash rate next week.
For everyday Aussies that also means it will be harder to borrow, and if you’re already borrowing, it means the banks will pass on that increase to you which means we’ll continue to see pressure on Aussie households for some time.
To put it into perspective, The US Fed Funds Rate is sitting at 5.25% and they’re still fighting tooth and nail to bring inflation down. In my view, Australia is lagging big time and we have a long way to go to bring inflation down to pre-covid levels.
History does not repeat itself but it often rhymes according to Mark Twain (I think). Now assuming we use the price of Bitcoin as a proxy for the broader crypto market, we can see that historically, there is what I like to call a semaphore🚦style pattern that consists of a:
⬇️ down year
➡️ side-ways year (after moving up off the lows)
⬆️ up year
Looking at price action from 2014 to 2016, we can see the pattern. We can also see where we are now relatively speaking.
Looking at 2018 to 2021, you start to see the trend more clearly.
Looking at 2022 to 2025, we’ve had our up move off the lows, and we’re now consolidating sideways for the remainder of the year, before a monster 🧌 pump in 2024 and 2025 📈
We’re now fully allocated across Enzyme and expect to keep the same portfolio for the remainder of the year given our asset allocation thesis has not changed from when we discussed it earlier this year. As always, we will take profits if an altcoin in the portfolio pumps as FTM did in January 2023 🚀.
On the eToro front, we’re sitting on ~20% cash reserves having deployed much of the capital in November 2022. We are capitalizing on the tech stock momentum trade by having open positions in Amazon and Meta and capitalizing on the AI trend by proxy with allocations to ARKK and ARKF ETF’s.
As I said, I think we’ll remain relatively flat for the remainder of the year and at least until the macro conditions improve. At the end of the day, tech and tech proxies do well in a low-interest rate, high-liquidity environment and we’re not there just yet.
2023 performance for P10X Capital:
📈 +56% on Enzyme
📈 +38% on eToro
👉 sign up and CopyTrade here
That’s all for now.✌️
-By Filip Brnadic
Alrighty then (Jim Carey voice)! Starting with some global news, we’re back in Australia! It’s been a whirlwind journey in Eastern Europe, but with the awesome personal news (we’re having a baby!), we figure there’s no place like home. Now that we’ve settled in and kicked into gear, I’ll no doubt be catching up with everyone to hear about all the things that we missed out on while we were away!
To pick up where we left off in January, we’re still in the camp that liquidity is all that matters.
Because you’re all chart fanboys (and girls) like me, here is one from Raoul Pal that I think will knock your socks off. It is the Total Global Liquidity Index overlayed with the #nasdaq100 index.
In English, in the white is the central bank balance sheet of G5 countries (France, Germany, Japan, UK, and US) among other metrics. We use this as a proxy for liquidity. In blue is a chart of the #nasdaq, which is a stock market index of 101 stocks issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies on the NASDAQ stock exchange.
The reason why this chart is so good is because it clearly shows that there is a very, very close ongoing relationship with liquidity (bank balance sheets) and equity or stock prices, especially risk-on equities such as #apple , #amazon etc. which make up almost the entire market cap of the NASDAQ 100.
What we also know is that the ultimate risk-on assets are #crypto, and when #stocks do well, crypto in general does better. When stocks do poorly, crypto does worse 💩.
So what? Well, if liquidity is the key driver of asset prices, then all we need to do is know what’s happening in global liquidity to determine what will happen in the crypto markets. Right? Easy enough? Well, not really 👎
We can see that liquidity is improving slightly (white line going back up), coinciding with equity prices going up since January 2023. But what about the forward-looking picture?
Our base case is that nothing will break enough to warrant the FED adding liquidity or dropping rates this year. This means liquidity and equity prices will stay flat to down (most notably due to the US debt ceiling and the need to replenish FDIC reserves following the fourth bank going into receivership – but I won’t bore you with that now) over the next 7 months to round out 2023.
This coincides with our thesis from January 2023 that markets would “finish 2023 higher than 2022,” but it certainly isn’t going to be “one of those years” in equities or crypto.
Long story short, commodity inflation has collapsed and has now turned negative year-on-year. As a result, we’re even more confident than we were in January when we said that we “expect inflation to come down to around the FED’s targets in the second half of 2023”. If we had to guess, the forward trajectory would look something like the yellow arrow in the figure below, coming down to 2% at the end of 2023/ in early 2024.
On the recession side of things, we’re probably already in a recession (not that it feels like one), and if we’re not, we’ll probably be there shortly. I tend not to listen to the “recession fear-mongers” because I truly think those are the same people that were burnt by the 2000 tech bubble, and then scolded by the 2008 GFC. IMO, the recessionary fears have been over-sensationalized by the media and it’ll be a news story without any collossal ramifications to asset prices because it has already been priced in.
-By Filip Brnadic
Since the current NFT meta is free mints with no roadmap, I want to give a quick primer on reading an NFT smart contract and ways to be safe during mint. In this article, I will cover:
Now you are thinking – why would I want to mint directly from the Contract? What’s wrong with minting a project from their launch page? Well, there are a couple of reasons for that. Minting from a Smart Contract can help you mint a project early, and don’t miss out when there is a lot of hype. Multiple times, project launch sites crashed during mint due to the vast amount of traffic going through the website. The second reason is simple – minting directly from a Smart Contract can help you avoid scams.
Although the term smart contract can sound a bit daunting and very few people are interested in going into the nitty-gritty of it, having a basic understanding of a smart contract can help you inspect an NFT project.
We will use Etherscan – the most popular blockchain explorer for Ethereum blockchain, to read a smart contract. So, what are some basic and valuable things you can find on Etherscan when reading a smart contract?
Let’s use BAYC as an example. You can find the NFT project contract address by going to Opensea, finding your project (1), clicking on any of the NFTs and clicking on Details (2) – Contract Address (3). This will take you to the Contract on Etherscan.
On the Etherscan page, click on Contract (4), where you will be able to read the Code (5), Read Contract (6) and Write Contract (7).
Firstly, you can inspect the Code. If you know how to read lines of code, you can go nuts here and see the entire Contract – I won’t be doing this.
Secondly, you can Read the Contract – here you will see a list of different functions. The functions in various contracts may differ or be named differently, but you usually would see:
Thirdly, you can go and Write the Contract – here you will need to connect your wallet (12) to make changes to the Contract. The available functions of what you can do will differ depending on the project, and it will cost you some ETH to do any of the transactions. With BAYC, you can, for example, transfer (13) an NFT or mint (14) NFT directly from the Contract (well, this was available when the project launched).
Next, let’s see how you mint an NFT from a contract.
Follow steps 1-7 to navigate your way to the smart contract of the project you like. If the project is not on OS yet, you can search the contract address on Etherscan.
Once you click on Write Contract, you will need to connect your Web3 Wallet. When connected, go to the mint section in the Smart Contract. You will need to enter how much you will pay for how many tokens you want here. If you are familiar with the project, you will know the mint price and the max amount of tokens you can mint before the launch.
If the price is 0.08ETH (BAYC example), you will enter .08 in the first field and 1 in the second field.
If the max amount of NFTs you can mint is 20 (BAYC example), then you will enter 1.6 in the first line (15) and 20 in the second line (16). If the mint is free – the mint price will be 0, and you will only need to pay a gas fee.
If you don’t know the mint price, you can check this information in the Smart Contract. Go to Read Contract and you will find the information there:
After clicking Write, you will be prompted to confirm the transaction via your Web3 wallet provider. Double-check the transaction details and gas fee before confirming the transaction. That’s it, you minted your NFT directly from a Smart Contract!
Recently there has been a wave of NFT projects offering free mints. By free, I mean that you only need to pay the transaction fee when minting. Although I think that free mints are a great way to attract more people, who do not hold big bags of ETH, this opens the door for scammers looking to take advantage of less experienced users. Here are a few tips on how to stay safe during a mint.
Use a wallet with minimal ETH and no valuable assets in it. One wrong signature, and your precious NFT disappears. Make sure you have enough funds to pay the gas fee, though. On a related note, please don’t keep your valuable NFTs in a hot wallet; move them to a hardware wallet. Here is a helpful chart suggesting how you may want to structure your wallets.
There have been many scams where a project advertises a free mint on their site but changes the mint button to a signature request for you to approve transfers to your valuable NFTs. This is how you get your NFTs stolen quickly.
When you mint from a contract, you can call the exact (mint) function that you want to call. This reduces the chance of you signing something you didn’t intend to. Go back to part 2 of this article to see the steps on how to mint an NFT directly from a Smart Contract.
Here’s an example unverified Contract: https://etherscan.io/address/0x6c830acd0b1610f547f568abd9500012cffd5208#code. You’ll find that there’s no readable code on the Etherscan page. For a free NFT mint, this almost guarantees something malicious is going on. Unless you know how to read through decompiled bytecode, I highly recommend not minting. You also won’t be able to mint directly from the Contract.
To summarise, learn how to read a Smart Contract, mint NFT directly from Smart Contract as often as possible, use a burner wallet when minting and avoid suspicious-looking contracts (no blue tick on OS, no green tick on Etherscan). Stay safe!
-By Alina Brnadic
I’m long Amazon now that markets are open!
Amazon has not wicked below the lower BB20 (on the monthly) since the 2008 GFC, indicating it is two standard deviations oversold and prices are low on a relative basis. Bollinger bands are not intended to be used on their own, so on to point 2.
Similarly, it has not wicked below the MA50 and EMA50 since 2008.
As an exponential growth stock, it has traded above EMA20 for the majority of months in the last 14 years. It will do so again.
Looking at some of the worst selloffs over the last 14 years, the GFC stands out @~-65% from peak to trough. Do I think the price will reach ~$1,308? No. Am I worried if it does? No.
Has their business model changed? No. It’s a long term investment, and long term there hasn’t been a better time to buy in years!
@aswathdamodaran, the father of valuation recently indicated that $AMZN was ~9.7% undervalued at $3068 (valuation @ $3,398). Current price is $2,226 indicating ~-34% undervalued.
He also added it to his portfolio. He tweeted on Feb 13 (not sure of the purchase date or if still holding).
Assuming he purchased on 24th Jan when prices were at their lowest, means I enter my trade 16% lower
This is not a metric, but another indicator in my arsenal to support my thesis – someone I look up to tremendously has the same idea.
@RaoulGMI recently started the macro masterclass series on @RealVision– I recommend everyone watch it if you want to understand the current macro climate from some of the greatest minds of our time.
There he also points out that $AMZN is two standard deviations oversold and that you should be a buyer. I tend to agree. The upside we’ve been given from sellers is a gift and I thank the paper hands for it.
-By Filip Brnadic
As the cryptocurrency bear market ensues, NFTs have also experienced dramatic drawdowns. The Bored Ape Yacht Club floor is down 30% from their ATH, and Moonbirds is down 50%. $APE has crashed 77% since ‘The Otherside’ mint, from its peak of $26 down to $5.84. While many think that NFT drawdowns come as a result of the bear market in the equities and crypto sector, at times like this, it is important to remember that price volatility is the nature of the crypto industry. This article aims to zoom out and look at the bigger picture of what the future of NFT might hold.
NFT Market Growth
NFT market saw extraordinary growth in 2021. If there was minimal action a year ago, now we can see a steady weekly trading volume increase, with 250K ETH traded every week since Aug-21, according to Nansen.ai
Figure 1: NFT market size
To confirm that these are not the same group of people trading between themselves, we have seen massive growth in the number of users. For example, the number of weekly users for OpenSea grew from 47k in Aug-21 to 182k in May-22.
Figure 2: Users per week
Coinbase has recently launched its NFT marketplace. Instagram is testing NFT integration, and I’m sure we will see many more new marketplaces launching in the coming months. We could argue that centralized platforms adopting NFT is not the way to an open metaverse; however, it’s still a clear indicator of where the market is going. More importantly, NFTs are more than just pretty pictures on your phone, digital art or a PFP. This concept presents a much deeper idea technically as well as socially. Let’s first look at the former.
Technical idea
The technical, more profound idea is that blockchain, the underlying technology that NFTs are built on, has solved a significant problem in distributed systems and computer science. The problem of how people who don’t know and trust each other can coordinate and agree on a set of facts.
The implication of this is that we now have a way to store a set of information that is not in a database. We know that modern society runs on databases. How much money do we have in our bank account? What did we buy in a grocery shop? Which hotel do we check in at? Thousands of databases connected to the internet organize our everyday life.
It is something that’s happened in the last 50 years. Before widespread computers and the internet, this was not as important a part of human society. Now, it is integral for running any modern society. We take it for granted as completely obvious because it’s the only way to do it. I am old enough to remember the days without a computer, the internet, or a smartphone. Still, now I can hardly imagine my life without it. And what that means is that there are thousands of TTP (trusted third parties) around us. People who we are, in effect, trusting as a counterparty for some set of information. Blockchain eliminates this.
Social idea
NFTs present a moment of crypto consumerization. It is well-known that technology becomes consumerized when you stop talking about it. For example, Instagram uses Python, machine learning, cloud computing, routers, and servers. But no one has ever said, hey, you should use this cool Instagram app; it uses Python. That’s not how consumer technology works. And that is because technology isn’t interesting to most people – technology is interesting to meet human needs.
The second aspect of this consumerization moment is that every organization on the planet has an incentive to mint an NFT. NFTs can represent anything and everything, including Dolce Gabbana dresses, Nike sneakers, and Ray-Ban sunglasses. And all of these companies have incredible brand equity and a customer base. With NFTs, they can monetize that with a ~90% gross margin product.
Figure 3: NFT adoption curve by @WRabbit1111
We will have every single fashion lifestyle company showing NFTs in the coming months and years. It will then roll over to the consumer-packaged goods companies. You’ll have a QR code on your six-pack of Coke. You’ll scratch that, and you’ll get an NFT. Why? Because then they can directly airdrop you a coupon for the two to one sale. Universities will do it for their alumni base. Sports teams will do it for their fans.
Eventually, you’ll be in the local barbecue pit masters club, and you will get the barbecue master of the month NFT. Everyone is coming. Over a decade, everyone is going to have many, many NFTs.
The point here is that a society with television is different from a society without television. And a society with the internet is different from society without the internet. Society itself changes when you have Twitter, Facebook, Tinder and Uber. The way people communicate and do business changes fundamentally. Society will change because we now have permissionless innovation with digital cultural objects.
What’s next?
The metaverse becomes epically compelling when you put those two things together – the open source, trustless rails to store and transfer digital cultural objects. This is the part where people say – “I’m not going to wear those glasses”. Just like you’re not going to get a smartphone. Just like you’re not going to use Google, Twitter, and email. We use all these devices and platforms because it is hugely convenient. It makes us more productive; it increases our efficiency; it fires our dopamine levels.
The metaverse won’t be like another Facebook or Instagram in the decade ahead. It will be everywhere around us and infinity times better – photorealistic, mixed with augmented reality, with all these cool features to better our everyday lives. And since we’re inevitably going to live in this world, the most important discussion we should be having is how this world should be architected?
It’s time to build, my friends, and the time to build is now.
-By Alina Brnadic
The truth is, generational wealth is created in bear markets, not bull markets, as some would have you believe.
Crypto “influencers”, Crypto Twitter (CT) accounts, and YouTubers (YT’ers) will tell you to “buy the dip”, but this advice is not reasonable nor actionable. Where we are in the market is critical to understanding how to “play the market”. We are currently in a bear market.
Those that made life-changing money in 2020/2021 did so because between 2018 and 2020, they were doing the research, accumulating, studying trends, and positioning themselves for what was to come.
Here we will cover the three (3) most important things to position yourself in a bear market to maximize the chances of life-changing returns in the next bull run. Our team readily implements this, and we cover these in more detail in our workshops.
Your sole focus should be on learning, accumulating, and surviving in a bear market. Speculating on micro-cap altcoins in a clear downtrend can only end one way (for most people) and is akin to catching a falling knife. There is no path to generational wealth if you buy micro-caps, shitcoins, and other illiquid projects (NFTs) that continue to bleed out for the next two years. The crypto space will break All-Time-Highs (ATHs) again. Still, many projects will remain remnants in the ever-growing crypto graveyard, never to be thought of again. That’s why it’s essential to position yourself correctly.
Here are some bear market portfolio examples depending on your risk appetite.
This is a sample portfolio, and the digital assets therein are interchangeable. However, your focus should be on having a portfolio that mitigates downside risk and aligns with your risk tolerance. What’s the best way to reduce downside risk in a bear market? Stablecoins! Second best way? Blue-chip assets!
Your risk tolerance is defined by
Regardless of your risk tolerance, the universal takeaway is that you should always have a sizeable stablecoin position. How?
Grow your stablecoin portfolio using the following strategies:
Let’s break down how to execute each of these strategies.
Let’s say you’re a firm believer in what Nexo is doing in the space, and you’ve been accumulating their digital token $NEXO.
The figure below shows that $NEXO (and most other digital assets) have been in a clear downtrend since the market peaked in November 2021. Pay careful attention to the volume bars at the bottom. This is a helpful indicator of market narrative or tailwind effects in play. Since Feb 2022, there has been minimal trading volume compared to the mid-end of 2021.
However, following the world’s biggest exchange listing (Binance) the token, the price has surged +63%. This was a perfect time to take profit on your holdings during a bear market pump. Why?
Before the listing, the number of daily social mentions was ~100-300. Following the listing, it climbed to 1,860. How did the price react to this? It almost hit ATH (see Figure 3).
Courtesy of @LunarCrush, we can overlay the price on the social mentions. We see that the price surge matched the last three (3) candles to a tee. Peak social mentions = peak price. Falling social mentions = retracement of price.
Bottom line: Take profit on holdings during pumps so that you can replenish your stablecoin holdings or buy back lower.
Pro Tip: If your investment doubles, take your principle out. That way, you are effectively riding risk-free.
Some of the best stablecoin farming information can be found on @Coindix. You can filter for stablecoins only and sort by Annual Percentage Yield (APY). For farming, our approach is simple. The majority of stablecoins are in farms with high TVL. This is a great strategy for passive income and to keep topping up your stablecoin reserves.
More advanced users can check out
Just remember, stablecoins are not entirely risk-free. Here are some inherent risks to consider.
Then again, holding cash is also at risk from dollar devaluation and inflation.
There are only a few reasons users should not stake their PoS assets for passive income. With the proper security protections in place and due diligence, it is a relatively simple way to earn an additional yield on your asset of choice, secure the network and rotate into stablecoins during pumps. This isn’t necessary, however, and you can simply hold the underlying asset.
Solo staking is considered the gold standard. Essentially, it is the act of running a node connected to the internet. This method provides full participation rewards, improves a network’s decentralization, and never requires trusting anyone else with your funds.
However, most users will opt for Staking-as-a-Service (StaaS) or pooled staking. This involves delegating node operations to a 3rd party validator for a commission or a cut of your profits. Three (3) things to consider when selecting a validator.
Let’s use Solana as an example. We can use stakeview.app and validators.app to find high performing validators with low commissions.
The largest validator pool on Solana is @Everstake, with 625,000 users and 12.9M $SOL staked. However, it also charges a 7% commission and has an ~11% skipped vote percentage. The fewer votes skipped, the higher the rewards earned each epoch. The higher the rewards, the greater your own share.
On the other hand, Shinobi Systems (stakeview’s own validator) has a consistently low skipped vote % and commission fee.
This is confirmed on the stakeview.app website along with the estimated APY. Shinobi’s APY is 5.24%.
Everstake APY is 4.36%
You could then build a comparison tool to determine the yield difference between two (2) validators based on these metrics. We’ve created a simple tool below which we freely distribute to our “How to DeFi” workshop attendees.
The data shows a ~40%% difference in staking yields between the largest validator (Everstake) and Shinobi Systems.
An excellent time to deploy capital in a bear market is when markets are down significantly.
When heatmaps bleed red such as this one from @Coin360.
When the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index starts looking like an (empty) petrol indicator on your vehicle.
When we are in a downtrend and an On-Balance-Volume (OBV) indicator is so deep in the red, it has been months or even years since it last hit those levels (see November 2019 and March 2020). There’s more to it than ‘when it is red’, but you get the gist.
When that time comes, it’s equally as important to not deploy your capital all at once. Remember, bear markets are brutal, and as history shows, they can last for years. Instead, use the Dollar-Cost-Average (DCA) method, and what you may find is that not only is
Aside from DeFi plays, earning additional or passive income is critical. Here are some examples:
Side-hustles/jobs are sure-fire ways to earn additional income and keep you in the game during the often-gruesome bear markets. I know these may seem abstract, but I can assure you they work. Why? Because I’ve done each of them at some point in my life.
Most of all, bear markets are for learning. Upgrade your DeFi skills, learn trading principles, whale watch on the blockchain, learn to write, and learn to code. I could go on, but I think you get the point.
Remember. Take risks. Shoot your shot. Generational wealth is created in bear markets, not bull markets. That’s all for now.
If you’re interested in exploring this further, come along to our “How to DeFi” workshops and learn ‘on the job’.
-By Filip Brnadic
